Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 9.642937 10.730939 11.942788 13.402642 15.126985 17.115841 19.608285
2025-04-20 8.829129 10.379360 12.249909 14.713870 17.937720 22.107788 28.078319
2025-04-27 8.048202 9.797849 12.021817 15.134424 19.514408 25.689558 35.529214
2025-05-04 7.163092 8.926973 11.249760 14.641487 19.672185 27.240041 40.367529
2025-05-11 6.748845 8.604810 11.135541 14.992415 21.034231 30.779877 49.386629
2025-05-18 6.253038 8.109885 10.709384 14.804004 21.501763 32.940482 56.654718
2025-05-25 5.843171 7.691658 10.339926 14.636044 21.946098 35.118130 64.722703
2025-06-01 5.522553 7.370295 10.075203 14.587466 22.563989 37.724555 74.782779
2025-06-08 5.169560 6.972252 9.655439 14.230199 22.566446 39.115441 82.559788
2025-06-15 4.934557 6.731635 9.455330 14.212243 23.180584 41.897254 95.416068
2025-06-22 4.603313 6.322941 8.957900 13.627907 22.619930 41.988847 100.568496
2025-06-29 4.293494 5.929804 8.459197 12.995644 21.882125 41.531998 103.870475
2025-07-06 4.028157 5.601178 8.059353 12.533961 21.491790 41.976159 111.192780
2025-07-13 4.095752 5.797916 8.535957 13.723369 24.748276 52.489624 166.057752
2025-07-20 4.010892 5.743200 8.582281 14.104468 26.324366 59.213797 215.284697
2025-07-27 3.797305 5.466172 8.225073 13.657821 25.912890 59.998827 234.598395
2025-08-03 3.720987 5.410420 8.249918 13.975852 27.387063 67.232856 307.563598
2025-08-10 3.576995 5.233583 8.046748 13.805140 27.620785 70.490333 360.770056
2025-08-17 3.446227 5.072346 7.861189 13.652887 27.879004 73.980464 427.000914
2025-08-24 3.339601 4.946773 7.732495 13.608838 28.419419 78.809313 526.206105
2025-08-31 3.202546 4.762708 7.485025 13.284706 28.144928 80.337417 594.089048
2025-09-07 3.114286 4.659049 7.381485 13.268408 28.735025 85.807957 752.972809
2025-09-14 2.966142 4.445188 7.059477 12.737552 27.767689 84.069075 779.708557